Monday Newsletter – 18th June

Monday – 18th June 2018

 

Back to earth…or turf with a bump yesterday with a sub-standard run from Sheepscar Lad and no real explanation, we expect that one to continue an upward curve during the rest of the season.

We’ll move on and look to build on what has been a cracking opening couple of months and look forward on what is a massive week of racing with the Ascot festival.

One of our biggest disappointments this term has been the showing of Kupa River (Ayr 15.35) who the stable were extremely hopeful of picking up a decent sprint with this term – we backed him on htree of his four runs where he has flattered to deceive…….and his best performance has come when stepped up to a mile and 2nd to Acclimatise off level weights – that one then followed up over 10f and a decent showing at HQ sees it rated 94 whilst Kupa River still hovers on 78. Unless this has been one of Baldrick’s cunning plans, those showings see him hard to recommend……cue law of sod 🙂

We have just one for members below from Nottingham this evening.

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge….our bank has grown by nearly 80% with an ROI of over 50%….current stakes are now £22.27 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com whilst we sort the issues out with the old feedback email address…any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Ayr card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

2.00 EBF Novice Auction Stakes (5) 6f

Timeform Top Rated:
100p 6. SOCIETY QUEEN Richard Fahey Paddy Mathers
90 1. CELEBRITY DANCER Kevin Ryan Non Runner

Analyst’s Verdict:
Society Queen pulled clear of the remainder when runner-up on her debut at Catterick last month and looks sure to progress, particularly now stepped up in trip. She can open her account. Light Heart looks the pick of the newcomers, ahead of Hurricane Hero.

2.30 Ayrshire Cancer Support “Confined” Novice Stakes (5) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
83+ 1. SHE’S PUKKA Iain Jardine Graham Lee
77 5. HOME BEFORE DUSK Keith Dalgleish Connor Beasley
74 7. DOON STAR Jim Goldie James Sullivan

Analyst’s Verdict:
She’s Pukka shaped as if better for the run when an encouraging fourth at Wetherby on her reappearance and is taken to return to winning ways. Home Before Dusk and Butterfly Lily are other key players.

3.05 ayrshirecs.org Handicap (6) 5f

Timeform Top Rated:
75 2. STAR CRACKER Jim Goldie Daniel Tudhope
74 4. PAVERS PRIDE Noel Wilson Connor Beasley
73 8. CELERITY Lisa Williamson Phil Dennis (3)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Star Cracker had little chance on his latest start and is best judged on his 2 previous near-misses last month. He holds major claims in a race that shouldn’t take a great deal of winning. Perfect Words and Brendan are others to consider.

3.35 Volunteer To Help Ayrshire Cancer Support Handicap (4) 5f

Timeform Top Rated:
92 8. KUPA RIVER Roger Fell Graham Lee
91 9. ORIENTAL LILLY Jim Goldie James Sullivan
90 2. MY NAME IS RIO Michael Dods Connor Beasley

Analyst’s Verdict:
Jack The Truth had a productive winter, scoring 3 times, and proved he’s just as effective on turf with fine efforts in defeat the last twice. He can land the spoils here. Landing Night, Oriental Lilly and My Name Is Rio make up the shortlist.

4.10 Ayrshire Cancer Support James Bond Ball Handicap (4) 7f50y

Timeform Top Rated:
99 5. SAINT EQUIANO Keith Dalgleish Graham Lee
98 14. ZEBULON Ruth Carr James Sullivan
98 8. OUR CHARLIE BROWN Tim Easterby Rachel Richardson (3)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Alemaratalyoum caught the eye on just his second start for Iain Jardine here last time, finishing with running left after meeting trouble. He gets the nod in what looks a competitive event. Saint Equiano and Our Charlie Brown head the list of dangers.

4.45 Ayrshire Cancer Support Here To Help Handicap (5) 1m5f26y

Timeform Top Rated:
93 5. INGLEBY HOLLOW David O’Meara Daniel Tudhope
92 9. WOR LASS Donald Whillans Rachel Richardson (3)
90 11. BRAES OF LOCHALSH Jim Goldie James Sullivan

Analyst’s Verdict:
This can go to Wor Lass, who took advantage of a drop in the weights when resuming winning ways at Musselburgh earlier this month. Still fairly treated, she is taken to follow up here. Ingleby Hollow and Artful Rogue can emerge next best.

5.15 Fundraising Ideas At ayrshirecs.org Handicap (Lady Amateur Riders) (6) 6f

Timeform Top Rated:
95 4. BERLIOS Rebecca Bastiman Miss Becky Smith
94 1. SMUGGLERS CREEK Iain Jardine Miss Emma Sayer
93 3. MUNTHANY Tim Easterby Miss Emily Easterby (3)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Berlios has been a model of consistency of late and remains on a workable mark. She can gain an overdue victory in the finale. Cheeni and Munthany are others to consider.