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Monday – 19th November 2018

 

First day of our NH season kicks off today with meetings at Plumpton & Hereford. Hope everyone has enjoyed a small break and we come back following a weekend of some decent racing with Cheltenham’s opening November Festival providing some good viewing. It was good to see a Northern trainer, Brian Ellison in the Greatwood with 20/1 shot Nietzsche giving 7lb claimer Danny McMenamin the biggest win in his fledgling career.

Hopefully we can have another good season to back up the profitable flat we have just had – today’s not the most glamorous of ‘jump off’s but we aim to find some value – there’s nothing of note for us at Plumpton but are going with a opening day bet in the first race at Hereford for members below. Aside from that Venetia Williams has an interesting newcomer with First Figaro from Dermot Weld’s stable going in the (15.50) who just about offers some wipes yer face EW value for those looking beyond the members selection.

Those starting out afresh, opening stakes at 1.25% EW will be £12.50 for those starting at a £1k bank

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Today’s Selections

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Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Plumpton card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

12.30 Strong Flavours Catering Novices’ Hurdle (4) 2½m114y

Timeform Top Rated:
140p 1. COMMANCHE RED Chris Gordon Tom Cannon
129 4. GO FORRIT David Arbuthnot Leighton Aspell
124P 3. GETAWAY TRUMP Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden

Analyst’s Verdict:
Commanche Red has a penalty to shoulder, but he ran to a high level when making a winning hurdling debut at Fontwell last month, and will be tough to beat again. There is some potential in opposition however, headed by Getaway Trump, who caught the eye on hurdles bow 3 weeks ago, and point-winner Talktomenow.

1.00 Heart, Turn Up The Feel Good Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) (3) 2m3f164y

Timeform Top Rated:
136p 2. LARRY Gary Moore Jamie Moore
135+ 4. RISK AND ROLL Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden

Analyst’s Verdict:
Larry showed a fair bit on his debut over fences in a useful handicap at Ascot a fortnight ago and could be up to taking this easier contest with improvement on the cards. Chosen Path and Mister Malarky should both have futures over fences while the jury is out on Risk and Roll.

1.30 SW Catering Handicap Hurdle (5) 2m1f164y

Timeform Top Rated:
109 2. GANNICUS Brendan Powell Brendan Powell
108 9. ERMYN’S EMERALD Pat Phelan Sean Houlihan (5)
106 5. KRISTAL HART Neil Mulholland Noel Fehily

Analyst’s Verdict:
Kristal Hart continues in good form having chased home a thriving one when going for a hat-trick here last month. She can resume winning ways. Cracking Destiny is interesting on his handicap debut for a red-hot stable, while Gannicus could pick up another race before too much longer.

2.00 Plumpton Racecourse Twinned With Pompadour Racecourse Amateur Riders’ Handicap Hurdle (4) 2½m114y

Timeform Top Rated:
121 5. WINTER SPICE Johnny Farrelly Mr Luca Morgan (7)
120 1. SACKETT Neil King Mr Jack Andrews (3)
116§ 4. MR FICKLE Gary Moore Mr George Gorman (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
A deserved breakthrough success in this sphere may be on the cards for Winter Spice, who has finished in the money on 5 of his 6 since switched to hurdles and he represents an in-form yard. Sackett is the clear main danger on the back of his Uttoxeter reappearance victory. The other 3 all have something to prove for one reason or another, with Mr Fickle perhaps the pick of them.

2.30 Sky Sports Racing Launching January 2019 Handicap Chase (4) 2m3f164y

Timeform Top Rated:
126 4. DR DUNRAVEN Peter Bowen Sean Bowen
123 1. HOKE COLBURN Brian Barr Sean Houlihan (5)
122§ 5. BOY IN A BENTLEY Neil Mulholland Noel Fehily

Analyst’s Verdict:
The vote goes to Dr Dunraven, who is only 2 lb higher than when registering his most recent success at Southwell in June and has conditions in his favour. The hat-trick seeking Hoke Colburn and Boy In A Bentley both look dangerous, whereas Ortenzia has something to prove following a low-key display and Mr Raj has an 18-month absence to overcome.

3.05 Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap Chase (4) 3½m102y

Timeform Top Rated:
114 8. BERMEO Johnny Farrelly Rex Dingle (7)
113x 6. CRUISING BYE Peter Bowen Sean Bowen
112+ 3. THEKINGOFCONNEMARA Barry John Murphy A. P. Heskin

Analyst’s Verdict:
Bermeo has only gone up a total of 9 lb for his hat-trick, which culminated in a decisive victory at Fontwell 10 days ago. This stamina test should be right up his street and, with just half-a-dozen runs over fences to his name, there could be more to come. Cheque En Blanc should leave his chase debut display well behind in time but C&D winner Itoldyou and Rogue Dancer rate the main dangers.

3.35 Strong Flavours Catering Handicap Hurdle (5) 3m217y

Timeform Top Rated:
103 1. WELLUPTOSCRATCH David Arbuthnot Bryony Frost
101 2. BALKINSTOWN Robert Stephens Mr Craig Dowson (7)
100 7. JONJOELA Tracey Leeson Graham Carson (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Welluptoscratch shaped well back from 6 months off when second at Hereford a fortnight ago and makes plenty of appeal. Lamh Ar Lamh has place claims again, as has Balkinstown.

 

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