Monday Newsletter – 22nd October 2018

Monday – 22nd October 2018

 

As we get into the last throws of the flat we begin the week with Pontefract and a course that has served us well over time and a meeting at Windsor for which there is Timeform below.

A couple of previous winners out at Windsor, Mark Johnston’s Winged Spur won LTO for us and goes in the (15.40) – we’ve had the money on that one and 9/2 is a little short and will pass that one over on going softer than previously encountered and in a stronger looking race. In the race prior (15.10), Andok goes for Richard Fahey but another who hasn’t managed it in this class and another we will skip and keep the powder dry.

At Ponty, much as though we’d like to get involved in the (17.30), Musharrif won for us back at Beverley and has run well since – but 7/2 is no price to get involved in at this stage. Likewise in the 15.30, Gahyyar has been backed but yet to win over at over 8 would suggest Ponty’s stiff uphill to far over 10f……..we’ve just one at a ‘monster price’ in that one for members below.

 

The bank is now £4,032 for those on the £1k to £10k challenge….and grown by over 300% with an ROI of over 28%….current stakes are now £50.41 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

On a separate note – we often get asked about our affiliation with the book Always Back Winners by Stewart Simpson – just to clear things up…..we have no association with him, but found it a cracking read in the late 70’s that inspired the introduction to the sport and hence the site name. His exploits were conducted with paddock inspections whilst at the meeting he was backing in with no such access to on-line accounts in those days. Much of the rationale concerning ‘top weights on turning tracks’ can still be applied today with supporting information ready to hand from the likes of geegeez, ATR etc which in theory makes it whole lot easier for the regular punter.

Anyone looking for a winter read during close season whilst we take on the NH…….for which he had no love at all 🙂 ….you can try and grab a copy from the likes of Amazon below….

&;

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Windsor card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.40 Attheraces Handicap (6) 5f21y

Timeform Top Rated:
80§ 2. WHO TOLD JO JO Joseph Tuite Robbie Downey
77 7. STAFFA Denis Coakley Oisin Murphy
76 12. JOHN JOINER Shaun Keightley Josephine Gordon

Analyst’s Verdict:
The vote in this openlooking handicap goes to Staffa, who has acquitted herself well on both previous visits to this course, including when third off a 2 lb higher mark over C&D in August. Conditions won’t be a problem and she gets the nod ahead of John Joiner. Harrison Stickle will be a threat if on-song, but recent Nottingham winner The Golden Cue has more on his plate this time.

2.10 Attheraces Novice Median Auction Stakes (5) 5f21y

Timeform Top Rated:
92 6. SWISS PRIDE Richard Hughes Shane Kelly
80p 11. VINO ROSSO Charles Hills Jim Crowley
79 3. DANDY LAD Richard Hughes Nicola Currie (3)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Swiss Pride was back in fine form at Bath 3 weeks ago and can get off the mark at the eighth attempt now fitted with blinkers. Vino Rosso looks a big player, while Rocket Action appeals most of the 3 Robert Cowell newcomers without the benefit of market clues.

2.40 Neil Oughton Lollapalooza Classified Claiming Stakes (5) 6f12y

Timeform Top Rated:
105 13. RENE MATHIS Richard Fahey Paddy Mathers
103§ 14. SATCHVILLE FLYER David Evans Liam Jones
99 11. BIG BRAVE BOB Richard Hughes Shane Kelly

Analyst’s Verdict:
Rene Mathis is one of the most appealing at the weights, and he is taken to preserve his 100% record in this grade following victories in claimers at Chester and Wolverhampton this season. Big Brave Bob and Satchville Flyer look the main dangers.

3.10 Ben Woollacott Memorial Handicap (4) (D.I) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
99+ 9. ACE VENTURA Roger Varian David Egan
97 11. HIDDEN DEPTHS Sir Michael Stoute Edward Greatrex
96 2. TURNPIKE TRIP Henry Candy Fran Berry

Analyst’s Verdict:
Ace Ventura has failed to build on his 2-y-o promise in a couple of handicaps this season, but there were potentially valid excuses on each occasion and there’s a good chance that he’ll get back on track under these conditions (Salisbury win last October was on heavy ground). Thistimenextyear performed well over an inadequate trip at Goodwood and is next on the list ahead of Turnpike Trip.

3.40 Ben Woollacott Memorial Handicap (4) (D.II) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
98 8. FRESH TERMS Ralph Beckett Oisin Murphy
97 9. GLORIOUS POET Daniel Loughnane Fran Berry
96 10. VENTURA DRAGON Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan

Analyst’s Verdict:
Fresh Terms went off a shade too quickly when collared close home at Chester and, down slightly in trip here off just a 1 lb higher mark, she is taken to regain the winning thread. C&D winner Maybe Today is the least exposed of these and could have a part to play if coping with conditions. However, as things stand, bigger threats are likely to be posed by Glorious Poet, Ghazan and Winged Spur.

4.10 Weatherbys Global Stallions App Handicap (4) 1m31y

Timeform Top Rated:
105 4. CROWNTHORPE Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan
103 8. CRAFTY MADAM Clive Cox Oisin Murphy
101 14. BLANCHEFLEUR Richard Hannon Thore Hammer Hansen (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
First-time cheekpieces seemingly perked Crownthorpe up at Haydock where he went agonisingly close on Friday. If the headgear works just as well second time round, he may well be the answer off the same mark with similar conditions forecast. Crafty Madam is feared most, though Madeleine Bond also looks dangerous now that she has her ground and recent C&D winner Christopher Wood also merits respect.

4.40 Solario Racing Personal Racehorse Syndication Handicap (5) 1m31y

Timeform Top Rated:
90 4. LIVVYS DREAM Charles Hills Callum Shepherd
89 1. THE GROOVE David Evans Rossa Ryan (3)
89 9. HEDGING Eve Johnson Houghton Charles Bishop

Analyst’s Verdict:
A chance is taken on Pacific Salt, who stepped up on his previous efforts this season when sixth in a big field at Nottingham recently. Now 1 lb lower than when scoring on deep ground at that venue last year, Pam Sly’s charge should go well at a price under Adam Kirby. Livvys Dream raised her game when emerging late on the scene at Kempton last month and she is feared most ahead of Hedging.

5.10 Attheraces Handicap (Gentleman Amateur Riders) (6) 1m3f99y

Timeform Top Rated:
84 12. SEVENTII Robert Eddery Mr George Eddery (5)
82 3. BLUFF CRAG Philip McBride Mr Patrick Millman
82 6. PARTY ROYAL Nick Gifford Mr David Dunsdon

Analyst’s Verdict:
With Simon Walker booked and conditions no problem, Highway One is pretty appealing. Indeed, she has shaped fairly well in 2 starts since returning from a break last month and will be fresher than most. Seventii just failed to overhaul Betsalottie in this race 12 months ago and should give it another good shot, while Party Royal (fifth in this last year) and Bluff Crag are others to consider.