Monday Newsletter – 28th January 2019
There’s Timeform for Kempton below and we’re taking one for members at that venue in the (16.15).
Outside of that, its’a fairly quiet Monday, at Ludlow (14.20) Caras Way goes for Philip Kirby and a solid chance to follow up having won LTO despite a mid-race blunder. She’s one for the lumpers at around 5/2 but likely to face a strong challenge Longhousesignorina.
Venetia Williams’s charge jumped right throughout at Wetherby LTO and pitched unluckily at the 11th. Back at Ludlow where she ran well on penultimate run going LH should go a lot close this time at just about a wipes yer face price, so looks the pick on value of the pair.
For those on the £1k to £10k challenge….we’re at a 35% win/place strike rate …..our bank is now £746.00 and current stakes are now £9.33 EW
Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.
BOL (Best Of Luck!)
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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Kempton 16.15 A couple of potentially progressive types in the 5yo Tizzard trained Empreinte Reconce, who was second on her handicap debut and Tierra Verde who lost her maiden tag winning over an extended 2m at Taunton earlier this month. The latter has recently switched to Emma Lavelle and has been raised 6lb for that win that may anchor the eight yr old. Outside of the two principles and looking for something at a bit of a price in this eight runner, HIJRAM is the only one with any real solid C4 form and predominantly campaigned in C3. She won at Hereford on penultimate run and looked to find the going bit quick at Leicester. Looking at the rest, most have been active and only any real showings in C5 and she should be able to confirm previous running with Everlaines. Today’s extra cut should assist and hopefully Henry Oliver can stick two fingers up at the establishment regarding his £140 ‘Wavegate’ fine on the weekend with what is his sole runner at the track today. There’s a best 7/1 available with Betfair this morning
Kempton 16.15 – Hijram
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Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Kempton card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……
1.00 Matchbook Betting Exchange Novices’ Hurdle (4) 2m
Timeform Top Rated:
139p 1. EXTRA MAG David Pipe Tom Scudamore
118 8. SUNDAY AT AUGUSTA Richard Rowe Andrew Glassonbury
110 3. LEADER WRITER Henry Spiller Paddy Brennan
Analyst’s Verdict:
Extra Mag finished with a flourish when winning at Exeter and seems sure to have more to offer, so can defy a penalty. Precious Cargo is very interesting going hurdling on his first run for Nicky Henderson after wind surgery, while Not So Sleepy and Sotomayor are talented recruits from the Flat.
1.30 Move Over To Matchbook Novices’ Chase (4) 3m
Timeform Top Rated:
159p 2. TALKISCHEAP Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
152 3. WHITE MOON Colin Tizzard Tom Scudamore
150 4. BOB MAHLER Warren Greatrex Richard Johnson
Analyst’s Verdict:
Talkischeap has taken very well to fences, runner-up in a strong Grade 2 at Newbury before landing the odds at Doncaster, and is preferred to On The Blide Side, who was a much better hurdler but ran no sort of race on his chase debut at Cheltenham on reappearance.
2.05 Matchbook VIP Novices’ Hurdle (4) 2m5f
Timeform Top Rated:
140 3. PYM Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
128p 7. MANVERS HOUSE Robert Walford James Best
127 1. MYSTICAL CLOUDS Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
Analyst’s Verdict:
Pym enhanced his reputation in defeat to end 2018, finding only one too good in Grade 2 company over this trip at Cheltenham, and he should take some stopping. Manvers House is open to progress, while The Cashel Man, a stablemate of the selection, should relish this distance now hurdling.
2.40 Matchbook Casino Handicap Chase (4) 2½m110y
Timeform Top Rated:
125p 1. SECOND TIME AROUND Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
124 5. MISS YEATS Laura Mongan Harry Teal (5)
123 8. KILINAKIN Zoe Davison Page Fuller (3)
Analyst’s Verdict:
Second Time Around is a chaser through and through on appearance/pedigree and surpassed his hurdling form straight away over the larger obstacles when runner-up at Huntingdon on Boxing Day, and can go one better. Miss Yeats had excuses last time and can quickly bounce back, while King Cnut is another novice who has taken well to fences.
3.10 Matchbook Best Value Exchange Handicap Hurdle (5) (D.I) 2m5f
Timeform Top Rated:
111 7. ZANTE Gary Moore Joshua Moore
108 8. URTHEONETHATIWANT Jeremy Scott Nick Scholfield
107 9. SIZING SAHARA Paul Henderson Paddy Brennan
Analyst’s Verdict:
Solid recent form is at a premium in this contest, which makes Zante all the more appealing on the back of his creditable effort at Plumpton. The 7-y-o has been nudged up 2 lb for that but remains feasibly treated and conditions are in his favour. If able to build on his reappearance display at Warwick, Urtheonethatiwant is likely to pose the greatest threat given that Martabot has a bit to prove.
3.45 Matchbook Best Value Exchange Handicap Hurdle (5) (D.II) 2m5f
Timeform Top Rated:
109 4. ILLTELLMEMA Suzy Smith Micheal Nolan
108§ 6. STONEMADFORSPEED Roger Teal Harry Teal (5)
106+ 8. SISANIA Suzy Smith Tom O’Brien
Analyst’s Verdict:
A chance is taken on Elite Garde, who has failed to pull up any trees so far but has time on his side, and an improved showing may be on the cards now that he’s faced with a stiffer test on this handicap debut. Illtellmema looks dangerous on the back of a creditable display at Fontwell and she is next on the list ahead of stablemate Sisania, who is likely to need the run following a break.
4.15 Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (4) 2m
Timeform Top Rated:
123 4. EMPREINTE RECONCE Colin Tizzard Aidan Coleman
122 6. TIERRA VERDE Emma Lavelle Leighton Aspell
121 5. EVERLANES Keiran Burke Nick Scholfield
Analyst’s Verdict:
Empreinte Reconce ran a blinder on her handicap debut at Chepstow 3 weeks ago and likely has more to offer in this sort of company now fitted with a tongue tie. She makes plenty of appeal. Taunton-winner Tierra Verde and Vocal Heir, who starts out for Olly Murphy, head up the dangers.
Good luck if you’re going with our 1.25% EW selection today….
Kempton 16.15 – Hijram
(Current stakes are £9.33 EW for those backing the 1.25% EW on the £1k to £10k)
BOL (Best Of Luck!)
ABW Team
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