Monday Newsletter – 29th October 2018

Sunday – 28th October 2018

 

Leicester and Redcar today with Timeform for the former meet below……Mr Strutter gave us a nice winner and goes in a gentleman’s ams at Leicester (16.15). He’s stepped up to 7f and unproven at the trip and it’s a stiff uphill finish so maybe found a little wanting despite near double digit on offer.

Elsewhere, Jason Hart must have a lumping chance on Make Me in the Redcar (14.50) – the maiden has gone close three times in handicap company and back in maiden class looks to have a solid chance at around 3’s.

However, despite saying our first members bet of the week would be tomorrow……..we are entering C2 again at Leicester 🙂

 

The bank is now just over £3900 for those on the £1k to £10k challenge….and grown to nearly 300% with an ROI of over 26%….current stakes at 1.25% are now £48.85 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Leicester card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

12.15 British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (4) 6f

Timeform Top Rated:
111 1. WATAN Richard Hannon Sean Levey
101 4. DAZZLING DAN Pam Sly Martin Harley
82 9. MY EXCELSA George Scott Fran Berry

Analyst’s Verdict:
Watan failed to fire in the Sandown Group 3 won by top 2-y-o Too Darn Hot last time, but he was only beaten 1½ lengths by Phoenix of Spain in the Acomb at York previously and should prove very hard to beat at this lower level. Dazzling Dan chased home the smart Jash in a Newmarket novice in August and is clear next best ahead of likely improver Stylish Motion and newcomer Hero Hero.

12.45 Haymarket Nursery Handicap (5) (D.I) 7f

Timeform Top Rated:
85p 4. DON LOGAN Richard Fahey John Egan
80 1. DIVINER Mark Johnston P. J. McDonald
79 10. MY UKULELE John Quinn Cameron Noble (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Don Logan duly improved when hitting the crossbar on nursery debut at Pontefract 3 weeks ago and, with further progress likely, he is taken to go one better here. Diviner also found just one too strong at Yarmouth last time and should be on the premises once again, while Thebah is worth considering off a lowly opening mark and the consistent My Ukulele makes each-way appeal.

1.20 Haymarket Nursery Handicap (5) (D.II) 7f

Timeform Top Rated:
81p 7. SUCH PROMISE Mike Murphy Tom Marquand
80 4. BARBARA HEPWORTH Gary Moore Jason Watson
80 9. COGNAC BLUE Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan

Analyst’s Verdict:
This step back up in trip could be just the ticket for Such Promise, who was doing all his best work at the business end when third in a 6f Catterick nursery. He remains open to progress and looks the one to be on with Tom Marquand doing the steering. Axel Jacklin opened his account on the AW last time, but this is more demanding and bigger threats may be posed by Barbara Hepworth and Cognac Blue.

1.55 Sir Gordon Richards Handicap (2) 1m3f179y

Timeform Top Rated:
118 1. HOCHFELD Mark Johnston P. J. McDonald
117 4. RESTORER Ian Williams Fran Berry
117 5. NOT SO SLEEPY Hughie Morrison Charlie Bennett

Analyst’s Verdict:
Hochfeld has finished runner-up in listed company on 2 of his last 3 starts and is presented with a good opportunity to deservedly get his head back in front. Not So Sleepy has also been knocking on the door of late and rates the main danger ahead of Aasheq.

2.30 Gumley Claiming Stakes (5) 7f

Timeform Top Rated:
91 10. LADY ALAVESA Gay Kelleway Josephine Gordon
87 9. HAVANA MARIPOSA K. R. Burke P. J. McDonald
86 13. ONEFOOTINPARADISE Philip McBride David Probert

Analyst’s Verdict:
Lady Alavesa resumed winning ways in a C&D seller recently and has every chance of following up on these terms. Havana Mariposa wasn’t disgraced in a Musselburgh handicap last time and is preferred to Grise Lightning and Arrogant for forecast purposes.

3.05 Hoby Handicap (2) 1m53y

Timeform Top Rated:
115 6. ESCALATOR Charlie Fellowes Stevie Donohoe
114 1. FIRMAMENT David O’Meara C. J. McGovern (3)
114 9. GOSSIPING Gary Moore Harry Bentley

Analyst’s Verdict:
Gossiping hasn’t got his head in front for a while, but there were plenty of positives to glean from his effort at Goodwood in August (subsequent run on the AW can be excused) and he is taken to strike off a workable mark. Escalator has made good strides this season and is a much-respected main danger back in handicap company, while Firmament is also high on the shortlist.

3.40 Cossington EBF Fillies’ Novice Median Auction Stakes (4) 6f

Timeform Top Rated:
88 2. PROMOTE James Tate Non Runner
86 1. DANCING RAVE David O’Meara C. J. McGovern (3)
81p 6. LADY CALCARIA Tim Easterby Rachel Richardson

Analyst’s Verdict:
Modern Millie makes plenty of appeal on paper and the hint should be taken if there’s confidence behind her in the betting. Lady Calcaria remains open to improvement and is best of the rest, though Dancing Rave shouldn’t be far away and Lonicera is a noteworthy newcomer.

4.15 Fosse Way Handicap (Gentleman Amateur Riders) (5) 7f

Timeform Top Rated:
89 12. CANFORD’S JOY Amy Murphy Mr Matthew Ennis (5)
88 6. YOUNG JOHN Mike Murphy Mr Charlie Todd (5)
88 8. OSWALD Gay Kelleway Mr Ross Birkett

Analyst’s Verdict:
The vote in this open-looking handicap goes to Canford’s Joy, who was runner-up off this mark over 6f at Epsom last month and will appreciate the return to this trip. Oswald is next on the list, but Young John, Desert Dream and Roaring Forties also command respect. Singing The Blues is worth a second look in the betting now pitched into a handicap.

 

On a separate note – we often get asked about our affiliation with the book Always Back Winners by Stewart Simpson – just to clear things up…..we have no association with him, but found it a cracking read in the late 70’s that inspired the introduction to the sport and hence the site name. His exploits were conducted with paddock inspections whilst present at the meeting he was backing in, with no such access to on-line accounts in those days. Much of the rationale concerning ‘top weights on turning tracks’ can still be applied today with supporting information ready to hand from the likes of geegeez, ATR etc which, in theory, makes it whole lot ‘easier’ for the regular punter.

Anyone looking for a winter read during close season whilst we take on the NH…….for which he had no love at all 🙂 ….you can try and grab a copy from the likes of Amazon below….