Saturday Newsletter – 10th November 2018

Saturday – 10th November 2018

 

Well we’ve reached the end of the road for the flat with the ‘last rites’ November Handicap the feature race this afternoon at Doncaster. It’s a real ‘pin the tail’ C2 contest that will be swerving as we like the look of the opening race on the card.

Hopefully everyone has enjoyed the season and a few bob in the bank besides….we’ve knocked out around a 25% ROI and nearly quadrupled the bank with 25 winners all generally north of 10/1 🙂 ……..following today’s post we will take a week out and start our NH service following next weeks Cheltenham meeting.

So that’s MONDAY 19th to kick off..…..however, we’ll still post Timeform up in the interim and also anything exceptional of note…….so there will be some new content each day through until then.

 

Back to today………we’ve one in the opening apprentices race that’s dealt with below in the members section, however for those wanting to have a nibble in the final handicap of the season, here’s a few stats to look at ‘eeking’ out a decent priced place?

Stato’s Guide November Handicap 15.15……..

• Rated 91 to 107
• <20/1
• Drawn >9
• >5 runs in the season
• Course form win/place
• Won or placed LTO
• Not the favourite – once since 1995!

Using that literally as a base leaves us just 5 who hit 6 of the 7 trends above:

Restorer, Baydar, Everything For You, Reshoun and current 2nd Favourite, Buzz. Three of those, Restorer, Baydar & Reshoun are trained by Ian Williams who won the race last year with Saunter!!

Buzz was a staying on winner over 10f at Newbury LTO last time so should be a threat if he gets the extra 2f here. However, the only course winner in the field is RESHOUN who won easy over 1m 6f at Haydock LTO and comes into this with just a 4lb penalty for that.

With rain forecast today he should find this to his liking in a real stamina test and with Jim Crowley up top, RESHOUN is our EW nomination for lightening to strike twice for last years winning trainer/jockey combo……on around 12’s looks a solid EW player.

 

The bank is now just shy of £3800 for those on the £1k to £10k challenge….and grown to nearly 290% with an ROI of just under 25%….current stakes at 1.25% are now £47.31 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Wincanton card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

12.40 EBF Stallions ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier) (3) 1m7f65y

Timeform Top Rated:
143 1. GRAND SANCY Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
132p 2. SHIROCCAN ROLL Emma Lavelle Noel Fehily

Analyst’s Verdict:
Grand Sancy has looked a different proposition since returning from a break and a wind operation so should prove hard to beat. Shiroccan Roll is likely to provide the main threat, unless one of the others takes a big step forward switched to hurdling.

1.15 Ann Westwood Memorial Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (3) 2½m35y

Timeform Top Rated:
134 3. FORTH BRIDGE Charlie Longsdon Harry Reed
133+ 1. CAPELAND Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost (3)
132 4. BUSTER THOMAS Emma Lavelle Patrick Cowley (3)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Capeland possibly would have been better served by delaying his challenge when runner-up at Fontwell last month, outdone by a thorough stayer over a trip that is on the limit of his stamina. This trip rates more suitable and he is one to be interested in moving forward. Forth Bridge and Buster Thomas are also lowmileage over fences and rate the chief dangers.

1.50 Hunts Food Service Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (2) 2m5f82y

Timeform Top Rated:
147 3. IF YOU SAY RUN Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
146 5. MISS CRICK Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
145 2. GRACEFUL LEGEND Ben Case Max Kendrick (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
If You Say Run had some sort of issue when last seen but prior to that she’d looked a potentially useful mare over hurdles, her form all solid, so she’s worth a chance to get back on the up to defy a mark of 131. Last-time-out winners Litterale Ci and Little Miss Poet are obvious dangers.

2.25 Jockey Club Ownership Syndicate ‘Rising Stars’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (1) 2½m35y

Timeform Top Rated:
161p 1. BAGS GROOVE Harry Fry Noel Fehily
156p 5. MAJESTIC MOLL Emma Lavelle Daryl Jacob
131? 2. FULL Neil Mulholland Robert Dunne

Analyst’s Verdict:
Bags Groove was an impressive winner of a good race of its type at Ffos Las 3 weeks ago and is narrowly preferred to Secret Investor, who’s closely matched on hurdles form and should make a better chaser.

3.00 Unibet Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) (1) 1m7f65y

Timeform Top Rated:
170p 4. IF THE CAP FITS Harry Fry Noel Fehily
167p 2. WE HAVE A DREAM Nicky Henderson Daryl Jacob
166 6. VERDANA BLUE Nicky Henderson Jeremiah McGrath

Analyst’s Verdict:
An excellent renewal with We Have A Dream taken to come out on top. He went undefeated on these shores as a juvenile last term and has the potential to make up into a very smart performer. His stablemate Verdana Blue has race fitness on her side and promises to be well suited by this sort of test. If The Cap Fits is another tremendous prospect if all is well.

3.35 Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase (Listed) (1) 3m1f30y

Timeform Top Rated:
156 1. PRESENT MAN Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost (3)
155 3. EL BANDIT Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
154 14. CAPTAIN BUCK’S Paul Nicholls Daryl Jacob

Analyst’s Verdict:
Paul Nicholls holds a strong hand as he bids to land this race for the ninth time. Present Man is only 2 lb higher than when taking this 12 months ago and can come out on top again under Bryony Frost, but returning stablemate El Bandit is a very interesting runner off what looks a good mark based on his hurdles form. Ramses de Teillee and Allelu Alleluia are others for the shortlist.

4.10 Jaytrack Employee Day Intermediate Open National Hunt Flat (5) 1m7f65y

Timeform Top Rated:
107 7. RUTHLESS ARTICLE Rebecca Curtis Nick Scholfield
106 6. MYBOYSAM Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
93 3. FLIC OU VOYOU Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden

Analyst’s Verdict:
Flic Ou Voyou failed to meet expectations on debut but this longer trip will suit and he is worth another chance. There are a handful of likely newcomers, headed by Jeremiah James and Supreme Soviet.

 

Anyone looking for a winter read during close season whilst we take on the NH, check out the book Always Back Winners by Stewart Simpson …you can try and grab a copy from the likes of Amazon below….