Saturday Newsletter – 25th August 2018

Saturday – 25th August 2018

 

The final day of the Ebor and with top class racing at Goodwood and HQ to back that up leaves us with a handful of races to look for something of value in and around C3 – C5 at Windsor & Redcar.

Talking of York, Michael Dods gave us a decent priced runner this week and his charges look to be well up for it at the moment – we mentioned Mister Belvedere as our EW option in the opener yesterday who ran 2nd to a very easy winner, Titus. He followed that up with Mabs Cross only just denied in the Nunthorpe…….any follower’s interested, he has Kings Gift and Mooltazem out in the (16.55).

Members notes are below where we have TWO at Redcar this evening…..

 

Performance To date…..

 

Yesterdays’s question of our ‘Class’ performance in terms of our results led to a few emails….it’s always good to be held to account (in a nice way 🙂 ) and Tony very kindly submitted his assessment of our season so far:

C2 : 1 winner (11/1) 3 places 10 losers……..(Total 14 bets: Win Only Strike rate = 7.14%; Win/Place Strike rate = 28.57%)
C3 : 2 winners (11/1 & 7/1) 5 places 11 losers…….(Total 18 bets: Win Only Strike rate = 11.11%; Win/Place Strike rate = 38.88%)
C4 : 6 winners (12/1 8/1 12/1 9/1 6/1 9/1) 11 places 24 losers……..(Total 41 bets: Win Only Strike rate = 14.63%; Win/Place Strike rate = 41.56%)
C5 : 6 winners (5/1 10/1 9/2 7/1 14/1 14/1) 12 places 24 losers……..(Total 42 bets: Win Only Strike rate = 14.28%; Win/Place Strike rate = 42.85%)
C6 : 1 winner (8/1) 2 places 9 losers……..(Total 12 bets: Win Only Strike rate = 8.33%; Win/Place Strike rate = 25%)

The odds reflected are what he took are the early prices and not SP…..betting to win only Classes 4 & 5 are the most profitable and have the highest (and virtually identical) strike rates.

It certainly reflects what we believe is our target market and the stables we know – perhaps our rare excursions into C2 and C6 should be treated with caution – again we welcome any views on this by email or the forum option below?

Backing the odds we do – if you look at the bottom of our spreadsheet the average selection has been just over (11.00) there are two figures that will dictate whether you make profit or not, firstly your Strike Rate, and secondly your Average Winning Odds (AWO).

If we divide 100/11.00 = 9.09 Strike Rate (to break even) – as you can see we are consistently ahead of that in terms of winners and adding the paying places illustrates why we continue to make money in the long term.

Alternatively we could say that with our approx. strike rate of 14% then we have 14 winners /86 losers (on average) or 86/14 = 7.82  being the average winning odds to break even.

Hopefully that’s not too baffling and shows why with our staking plan and the increased strike rate when we build the placed runners in that we head north over the season….in theory 🙂

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge….our bank has NOW grown by over 150% to over £2.5k with an ROI of over 25%….current stakes are now £30.50 EW.

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the York card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.50 Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (Group 3) (1) 1m177y

Timeform Top Rated:
132 2. LORD GLITTERS David O’Meara Daniel Tudhope
130 4. MUSTASHRY Sir Michael Stoute Jim Crowley
125 8. ZAAKI Sir Michael Stoute Frankie Dettori

Analyst’s Verdict:
Lord Glitters has taken his form up a notch this term and ran another cracker when third in Sussex Stakes last time. He looks the one to beat in the opener. Last year’s victor Mustashry is much respected and should be spot on after his successful Sandown reappearance last month, whilst Seniority has already scored 3 times this season and has to enter calculations on his return to pattern company.

2.25 Sky Bet Melrose (Heritage Handicap) (2) 1m5f188y

Timeform Top Rated:
118p 11. SUPERNOVA David Simcock Jamie Spencer
117 2. MAKING MIRACLES Mark Johnston Silvestre De Sousa
116 12. SERGIO LEONE Richard Hannon Ben Curtis

Analyst’s Verdict:
Supernova still doesn’t look the finished article, for all he is maturing quickly, and with this step up in trip likely to bring about further improvement, he may be up to completing the hat-trick. Making Miracles, Corgi and Berkshire Blue are a trio of others to consider in this valuable handicap.

3.00 Sky Bet City of York Stakes (Group 3) (1) 7f

Timeform Top Rated:
131 7. EXPERT EYE Sir Michael Stoute Frankie Dettori
130 5. SUEDOIS David O’Meara Daniel Tudhope
128 1. ABOVE THE REST David Barron Ben Curtis

Analyst’s Verdict:
Expert Eye confirmed the form shown in the Jersey with an excellent second in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood at the beginning of this month, and he looks the one to beat back at this level. Suedois has hit top form again so commands plenty of respect, while Donjuan Triumphant shouldn’t be ignored after running a big race in the Lennox Stakes.

3.40 Sky Bet Ebor (Heritage Handicap) (2) 1m5f188y

Timeform Top Rated:
125 12. TEODORO Tom Dascombe Richard Kingscote
123 14. SEA THE LION Jarlath P. Fahey R. P. Whelan
123 18. FUN MAC Hughie Morrison David Probert

Analyst’s Verdict:
Marco Botti fields two credible candidates in Crowned Eagle and Dylan Mouth, particularly the former who was just edged out by the smart Hamada here in May. He again went down all guns blazing at Haydock last time and earns the vote. With stamina concerns surrounding Teodoro, Irish raiders Sea The Lion and Stratum are feared most. Blakeney Point and last year’s winner Nakeeta merit respect, too.

4.15 Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) (1) 5f

Timeform Top Rated:
116 6. SABRE Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan
113 1. VINTAGE BRUT Tim Easterby David Allan
113 2. WELL DONE FOX Richard Hannon Jim Crowley

Analyst’s Verdict:
An open renewal of this listed prize. Sabre has been knocking on the door at this level and gets a narrow vote in receipt of weight from previous listed scorers Vintage Brut and Well Done Fox. I Believe In You looks capable of making his mark in this company, while Chapelli is another unlikely to be too far away.

4.50 Sky Bet Handicap (2) 1¼m56y

Timeform Top Rated:
118 5. PIVOINE Andrew Balding Jason Watson (3)
117 3. GULF OF POETS Michael Easterby Harrison Shaw (5)
117 6. ANOTHER TOUCH Richard Fahey Tony Hamilton

Analyst’s Verdict:
It’s fair to say that things didn’t go Pivoine‘s way in the Glorious Goodwood handicap won by Alfarris and, now 6 lb better off with that rival, Andrew Balding’s charge may well emerge on top granted a trouble-free passage this time. Alfarris is clearly going the right way and should give another good account, while Banditry will be a danger to all if on song,

5.20 Sky Bet Apprentice Handicap (2) 5f

Timeform Top Rated:
121 6. ROUNDHAY PARK Nigel Tinkler Lewis Edmunds
120 2. MARNIE JAMES Iain Jardine Callum Rodriguez
120 5. LORD RIDDIFORD John Quinn Jason Watson

Analyst’s Verdict:
A seriously competitive sprint to bring the meeting to a close. The thriving Roundhay Park gets a narrow vote but a strong case can be made for many others, including recent Glorious Goodwood 1-2 Lord Riddiford and Marnie James. Kevin Ryan’s Savalas already has a big handicap success to his name here this summer and is also on the shortlist.