Saturday – 27th October 2018
It’s more Doncaster and Newbury on the flat for Saturday with Timeform for the former meeting on the Town Moor below…..we’ve a couple of member bets for today but we’re having to dip into C2 with nothing of note at Newbury excepting a C5 Lady Ams and a last race Donny apprentices.
Please note the staking in the section below……..we’ll be back on Monday with a look at Redcar & Leicester.
The bank is now just over £3950 for those on the £1k to £10k challenge….and grown nearly 300% with an ROI of over 26%….current stakes at 1.25% are now £47.93 EW
Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.
BOL (Best Of Luck!)
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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Doncaster 15.25 We’ve had a nice winner with Camacho Chief this term and Paula Muir has been a revelation since getting up top and has been made favourite for this one. He goes well whenver there is soft in the title and it would be no surprise to see him go close at around 8’s. However we have the money in the bank from that one and we’re looking at a bigger price one form a decent looking draw. It’s no surprise we have had a decent haul from Jason Hart this season and it would be fitting if he could give us a good sign off on LORD RIDDIFORD. JH has four wins and a place on him when up top and has done so when leading from the front – his last races have seen Jason Watson run a hold up race following his Goodwood win and LTO was a similar story under another apprentice at York. Eased a couple of pounds for those last two efforts, this 3yo may still have some improvement to come. There was no clue to draw advantage from yesterday’s races on the Town Moor but traditionally the stands side have had the best of it and from trap 18 looks well placed. He’s a big enough price to ‘reign in’ the stakes and we can make a play with 0.625% ew of bank and with as low as 18’s in some places we’ve taken the monster 33/1 with bet365 Doncaster 15.25 – Lord Riddiford
Doncaster 16.35 Another jock who has served us well is David Probert and he gets a decent double digit priced ride on HAYADH. He was well fancied for the Ayr Silver Cup recently that suggested his well being, but was never at home over the 6f trip. He is a proven 7f type and probably justified that when he managed to beat Muntadab last time out and should be able to go close again running just 2 off a winning mark. Rebecca Bastiman’s charge is a best priced 14/1 with FOUR paying places but we’ve just taken the 1.25% EW of bank 11/1 with Betfair and FIVE PAYING SLOTS.
Doncaster 16.35 – Hayadh
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Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Doncaster card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……
1.45 Hilton Garden Inn Doncaster Stakes (Listed) (1) 6f2y
Timeform Top Rated:
114p 6. SAN DONATO Roger Varian Andrea Atzeni
112 10. KODYANNA Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan
112 2. BARBILL Mick Channon John Egan
Analyst’s Verdict:
Several promising types on show here and San Donato could be the pick of them. Indeed, Roger Varian’s charge was pretty impressive at Kempton last time and is expected to take this step up in class in his stride. Breath of Air’s performance at Newbury suggested that he is also ready for a bigger league and the Bated Breath colt is next on the list. Barbill should also have a part to play.
2.15 Scott Dobson Memorial Nursery Handicap (3) 7f6y
Timeform Top Rated:
111 3. CONSTANT K. R. Burke Richard Kingscote
109p 4. HAPPY POWER Andrew Balding David Probert
106 2. LINCOLN PARK Michael Appleby Alistair Rawlinson
Analyst’s Verdict:
It could be worth giving another chance to Constant, who had looked highly progressive prior to his disappointing York effort last time and appears on a decent mark for his handicap bow. Happy Power and Lincoln Park rate the principal dangers.
2.55 Vertem Very Different Stockbrokers Handicap (2) 1m3f197y
Timeform Top Rated:
112 10. WESTERN DUKE Ian Williams Stevie Donohoe
111 7. MUKHAYYAM Tim Easterby Robert Dodsworth (7)
111? 11. SEPAL Michael Dods Andrew Mullen
Analyst’s Verdict:
In a tricky-looking contest, the vote goes to Finniston Farm, who will appreciate the return to this longer trip and remains on a workable mark. The consistent Busy Street looks sure to make his presence felt again, whilst Western Duke lurks on a dangerous mark and should be straighter for last month’s yard debut.
3.25 sunracing.co.uk Handicap (2) 5f3y
Timeform Top Rated:
120 18. DUKE OF FIRENZE David C. Griffiths Josephine Gordon
119 12. HOLMESWOOD Michael Dods Callum Rodriguez
119 13. EVERGATE Robert Cowell Tom Marquand
Analyst’s Verdict:
Though others arrive here with more compelling recent form, Sir Robert Cheval is on a good mark judged on 2017 exploits and could be worth chancing. Indeed, his latest effort at Yarmouth was encouraging and the forecast slower ground is a plus. Back to form when striking at Ascot last time, Erissimus Maximus has to be feared, along with the Michael Dods-trained duo Dakota Gold and Camacho Chief.
4.05 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes (Group 1) (1) 1m
Timeform Top Rated:
126p 7. MAGNA GRECIA Aidan O’Brien Donnacha O’Brien
125 8. PHOENIX OF SPAIN Charles Hills Jamie Spencer
119p 1. CIRCUS MAXIMUS Aidan O’Brien W. M. Lordan
Analyst’s Verdict:
Magna Grecia was only just denied by a more experienced and already high-achieving colt in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket 2 weeks ago and can provide Aidan O’Brien with a ninth success in this. Turgenev has gone from strength to strength since beaten by a subsequent Group 1 winner on debut and is feared most ahead of the already-smart Phoenix of Spain.
4.35 crownhotel-bawtry.com Optional Claiming Handicap (2) 7f6y
Timeform Top Rated:
117 10. BREANSKI Jedd O’Keeffe Graham Lee
116 7. SHARED EQUITY Jedd O’Keeffe Jack Garritty
115 18. ORIENTAL LILLY Jim Goldie Kieran O’Neill
Analyst’s Verdict:
C&D winner Breanski is only 2 lb above his last winning mark and hasn’t been seen to best effect in recent outings. He could be the answer to an open-looking contest. Alaadel, Hayadh, Muntadab and Ripp Orf complete the shortlist.
5.10 Lexus Sheffield Apprentice Jockeys’ Training Series Final Handicap (4) 7f6y
Timeform Top Rated:
97 10. KNOWING GLANCE Richard Fahey Russell Harris (5)
96 1. TOUGH REMEDY Keith Dalgleish Andrew Breslin
96 4. INTERNATIONAL MAN Richard Fahey Sebastian Woods
Analyst’s Verdict:
This drop back in trip should suit International Man, who performed with credit despite appearing to find 10.2f too stiff a test at York last month. He remains on a workable mark and could be the answer. Tough Remedy’s recent spin at Ayr will have blown away the cobwebs and he is feared most ahead of the selection’s stablemate Knowing Glance. Kyllachy Dragon is also one for the shortlist.
Today’s Bets……..
Good luck if you’re going with our each-way selections today….
Doncaster 15.25 – Lord Riddiford (0.625%EW )
Doncaster 16.35 – Hayadh (1.25%EW)
(Current stakes are £47.93 EW for those backing the 1.25% EW on the £1k to £10k)
BOL (Best Of Luck!)
ABW Team
On a separate note – we often get asked about our affiliation with the book Always Back Winners by Stewart Simpson – just to clear things up…..we have no association with him, but found it a cracking read in the late 70’s that inspired the introduction to the sport and hence the site name. His exploits were conducted with paddock inspections whilst present at the meeting he was backing in, with no such access to on-line accounts in those days. Much of the rationale concerning ‘top weights on turning tracks’ can still be applied today with supporting information ready to hand from the likes of geegeez, ATR etc which, in theory, makes it whole lot ‘easier’ for the regular punter.
Anyone looking for a winter read during close season whilst we take on the NH…….for which he had no love at all 🙂 ….you can try and grab a copy from the likes of Amazon below….
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