Saturday Newsletter – 28th July 2018

Saturday – 28th July 2018

 

Well that’s 100 bets up for the season and a not too shabby near doubling of the bank with over 40% of our charges win/placing at greater than wipes yer face odds. Hopefully we can kick on now and convert a few more of those ‘hit the crossbar’ finishes into wins – the percentage staking we use that means bets have near doubled and a similar strike rate through the season would take us to near £5k.

Ahead of the forthcoming Glorious Goodwood next week we have a Saturday that features G1 action fromAscot and some class races at York – as ever we’ll be looking to eke a couple out in the lower grades for members notes below.

Previous winner Give It Some Teddy makes his tapeta debut at Newcastle (14.45), Rachel Richardson is the most experienced in this field but the 4’s is a bit low for us with Jedd O’Keeffe’s Dark Ruler well proven in this grade and surface for Jane Elliot who offers a little more EW value. We have had some fun with Harome this term and he steps up in class for the York Dash (14.40) – it’s a big ask with the likes of taking on Golden Apollo at virtually levels after his last win over the minimum 5f here LTO has put him up another 8lb.

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge, it’s been 3 months of incremental profits…….our bank has grown by over 96% with an ROI of over 25%….current stakes are now £24.38 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Ascot card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.50 Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (Group 3) (1) 6f

Timeform Top Rated 
116p 5. ROYAL INTERVENTION Ed Walker Gerald Mosse
111 1. ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY John Gosden Robert Havlin
108 3. CHAPELLI Mark Johnston James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
Scintilating takes a big leap in grade on the back of winning a Newbury novice first time out but, given her pedigree and the manner of that performance, it’s worth taking the chance that she’s a real top-notch filly. She can overcome the standard-setter Royal Intervention, with Angel’s Hideaway firmly on the radar.

2.25 Porsche Handicap (2) 1m

Timeform Top Rated
116p 5. GEORGE OF HEARTS Richard Hughes Shane Kelly
115p 8. ESCALATOR Charlie Fellowes Stevie Donohoe
114 3. CRACK ON CRACK ON Clive Cox Adam Kirby

Analyst’s Verdict:
George of Hearts and Escalator are the least exposed in the field and both have the makings of pattern performers eventually, so they’re taken against the field in this fascinating 3-yo handicap. The first-named looks well treated on his second to Society Power (second in the Jersey Stakes) and takes marginal preference, with Crack On Crack On considered, too.

3.00 Gigaset International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (2) 7f

Timeform Top Rated
127 9. FIRMAMENT David O’Meara Daniel Tudhope
126 19. RIPP ORF David Elsworth Hayley Turner
124 5. CARDSHARP Mark Johnston James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
Shady McCoy looked like the best horse at the weights in the Bunbury Cup last time, half a length behind Burnt Sugar but, more pertinently, 10 lengths clear of the others that raced with him, so he can show how well treated he is and turn the tables with that rival here. Flaming Spear looks a fascinating contender on just his second outing for Dean Ivory and Tony Bloom.

3.40 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By QIPCO) (Group 1) (1) 1m3f211y

Timeform Top Rated 
142 1. CRACKSMAN John Gosden Robert Havlin
136p 2. CRYSTAL OCEAN Sir Michael Stoute William Buick
136 4. POET’S WORD Sir Michael Stoute James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
Crystal Ocean has long looked a potential Group 1 winner, and he can take the step back up in class in his stride. Stable-companion Poet’s Word was impressive beating Cracksman at Royal Ascot and may prove the main threat, though the last-named sets the standard on the pick of his form and can’t be discounted, either.

4.15 Wooldridge Group Pat Eddery Stakes (Listed) (1) 7f

Timeform Top Rated 
112p 5. NATE THE GREAT Archie Watson Daniel Tudhope
104 6. VICTORY COMMAND Mark Johnston Silvestre De Sousa
100P 4. MASTER BREWER Michael Bell Ryan Moore

Analyst’s Verdict:
Master Brewer has looked well above average on both starts to date and the way he put the race to bed at Newmarket last time is all the more impressive considering the runner-up and fourth (of 4) have both won since, so he gets the vote to edge out Nate The Great in what promises to be a compelling listed race. Glorious Lover is another one open to improvement and merits consideration.

4.50 Longines Handicap (Lady Amateur Riders) (3) 7f

Timeform Top Rated 
118 10. NICK VEDDER Michael Wigham Ms L. O’Neill
116 1. NORMANDY BARRIERE Nigel Tinkler Miss Joanna Mason
115+ 2. CLIFFS OF CAPRI Jamie Osborne Miss Gina Andrews

Analyst’s Verdict:
Robero was rated in the mid-90s around this time last year and the assistance of Serena Brotherton is a big positive in races of this nature, so he’s a confident selection to make a winning start for his new yard having shaped as if on the way back on his final outing for Mick Easterby. Last-time-out winner Ghayyar is the biggest danger ahead of Normandy Barriere.

5.20 Canisbay Bloodstock Handicap (3) 1m3f211y

Timeform Top Rated
101p 10. BAJAN GOLD Stuart Williams Andrea Atzeni
99p 7. SLEEPING LION James Fanshawe Tom Queally
98+ 9. RAVENOUS Luke Dace Sophie Ralston (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
The progressive Bajan Gold left the strong impression that moving up to this trip would be in his favour when third at Sandown last time and, assuming Sleeping Lion takes up his engagement at Newmarket on Friday night, he looks the way to go. What A Welcome has gone from strength-to-strength since switched to handicaps and has to be feared, but Ravenous could be an even bigger threat