Saturday Newsletter – 30th June

Saturday – 30th June 2018

 

Our first selection yesterday was done a neck 2nd and apparently our 2nd selection was ‘doomed’ when Hugh Taylor from ATR tipped it up later in the morning leading to a big run on the early prices!

Elsewhere….our ‘lumper’ from our intro notes, Chief Ironside landed the C2 Handicap (20.30), with a 7/4 pillar to post win that looked very impressive.

On to what looks a very busy Saturday…..there’s the Irish Derby over at The Curragh with Timeform for that one below, and that’s backed up with meets at Donny, Chester, HQ, Lingfield & the Northumberland plate meeting at Newcastle!!!!

Perhaps it’s ‘an obvious’ from the sheer volume of meets, but there’s few field sizes of 10+ going anywhere in looking for something of value in our targeted races?

Previous winner Harome goes in the C3 (16.30) ‘Jump Jockey’s sprint at York – his head to heads with the likes of Tanasoq  & Acclaim The Nation have put him up to 85 and the best 5’s looks a bit tight in this. Incidentally, both those are back out at Chester this afternoon – ‘The Dash’ winner, Tanasoq goes in the 14.30 and 2’s looks a fair lumping price for one who still looks on the upgrade and effectively dropped in class – later on Acclaim The Nation goes in the 16.50 and up against our selection from last week, Merry Banter. Eric Alston’s charge is given a cracking draw in trap 1 and with Richard Kingscote up top does look another sound lumper?

We’ve just a sole selection for members below to finish the week….looking at tomorrow, there’s only Windsor and David Probert’s Happy Escape is drawn well in the (16.10) and one who can race up close to the pace – on another underwhelming card in terms of numbers of runners, this one looks ok for the lumpers……..we’ll not post tomorrow and be back on MONDAY!

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge, it’s been 3 months of incremental profits…….our bank has grown by over 70% with an ROI of over 35%….current stakes are now £21.31 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the The Curragh card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.40 Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Irish European Breeders Fund Maiden 6f

Timeform Top Rated 
88p 1. ALL THE KING’S MEN Aidan O’Brien Donnacha O’Brien
87 4. DARKASH J. A. Stack C. D. Hayes

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Lots of interesting newcomers, with Mount Tabora chanced under Ryan Moore without the benefit of market clues. Stablemate All The King’s Men is a likely type after a promising debut here 3 weeks ago. Boston Bruin is another one starting out who makes plenty of appeal on paper.

2.15 Tote Rockingham (Premier Handicap) 5f

Timeform Top Rated
123 8. MOVE IN TIME Paul Midgley William James Lee
122+ 4. BLUE ULURU G. M. Lyons C. T. Keane
121 13. SORS A. Slattery A. J. Slattery (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
A high-end sprint handicap, with Blue Uluru the selection in her hat-trick bid as she gives the strong impression that the assessor hasn’t yet caught up with her. Move In Time shaped well from a tough draw at Musselburgh 3 weeks ago and heads a strong British contingent, with Battle of Jericho another to consider back at a more realistic level.

2.50 Dubai Duty Free Jumeirah Creekside Dash Stakes (Listed) 6f

Timeform Top Rated 
122 7. FLEET REVIEW Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
120 3. GORDON LORD BYRON T. Hogan William James Lee
118 4. INTELLIGENCE CROSS Aidan O’Brien Donnacha O’Brien

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Fleet Review was brushed aside in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last week, but it would come as no surprise were he to bounce back returned to these calmer waters. Similar sentiments apply to stablemate Intelligence Cross, while Smash Williams lacks the class of that pair but does arrive in top form.

3.25 Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire Celebration Stakes (Listed) 1m

Timeform Top Rated
116 5. I’M SO FANCY Mrs J. Harrington C. O’Donoghue
114 3. ALLEGIO Denis Hogan Seamie Heffernan
113 4. AMBASSADORIAL M. Halford William Buick

Analyst’s Verdict:
St Patrick’s Day has missed a couple of engagements since transferring to Aidan O’Brien, but the feeling is that he could end up a Group horse if proving as effective on turf (dirt win in the US worked out well). I’m So Fancy looks a solid second choice.

4.00 Dubai Duty Free Full of Surprises Summer Fillies (Premier Handicap) 7f

Timeform Top Rated 
106 5. DIANTHUS Richard John O’Brien C. D. Hayes
105 6. HONOR OAK T. Hogan Shane Foley
104 2. PETTICOAT M. Halford William Buick

Analyst’s Verdict:
Probably not all that strong a handicap and Dianthus makes plenty of appeal for her up-and-coming trainer after a fine second here at the Guineas meeting. My Snowdrop is feared most ahead of Honor Oak.

4.35 Gain Railway Stakes (Group 2) 6f

Timeform Top Rated 
114 5. LAND FORCE Aidan O’Brien Donnacha O’Brien
107 8. VAN BEETHOVEN Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
103p 4. INVINCIBLE KARMA Mrs J. Harrington C. O’Donoghue

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Land Force has improved with each run and put up a useful effort when third in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot despite being poorly placed. He receives the vote, with stablemate Van Beethoven selected to follow him home ahead of Marie’s Diamond.

5.15 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) 1½m

Timeform Top Rated 
140 10. SAXON WARRIOR Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
136 3. DEE EX BEE Mark Johnston Silvestre De Sousa
128 11. THE PENTAGON Aidan O’Brien W. M. Lordan

Analyst’s Verdict:
Dee Ex Bee has taken his form to a new level this year, finishing comfortably in front of Saxon Warrior when runner-up in the Derby. He can go one better. Saxon Warrior is probably still to show his very best and is the clear pick of Aidan O’Brien’s runners. Latrobe looked good when shedding his maiden tag over C&D 3 weeks ago and may surprise a few.

5.55 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships Irish European Breeders Fund Handicap 2m

Timeform Top Rated
112 7. WESTERN BOY P. A. Fahy Shane Foley
110 8. TOP OTHE RA Thomas Mullins N. G. McCullagh
109+ 5. ANCIENT SANDS John E. Kiely Declan McDonogh

Analyst’s Verdict:
An open event, and a chance is taken on Western Boy, who has slipped to a handy mark and put in an encouraging run back in this sphere over C&D last time. Top Othe Ra appeals as the sort to do well in handicaps, with useful hurdler Low Sun another to consider now returning to the Flat.