Saturday Newsletter – 30th March 2019

Saturday Newsletter – 30th March 2019

 

Welcome back to the turf flat season that begins at Doncaster racecourse today……..is it really that time?

Whilst the NH has been challenging to say the least, it still doesn’t seem 2 minutes ago since we signed off in October with nearly £4k in the bank 🙂

Obviously it’s very early doors and selections will be a little bit thin on the ground until we see who’s hit the ground running. It’s mainly C1 & C2 on the card with the Spring Mile and the Lincoln usually out of our class rating but obviously contain progressive charges who have made the step up from lower grades we have backed them in and worthy of comment.

Coincidentally the only C5 on the card is the finale, (17.20) apprentices and features one of our big priced 2018 winners, ANDOC 🙂 Richard Fahey’s charge followed up that 14/1 win with a win, also in an apprentices, but then failed to build on that through the latter part of the season. He comes in here on 1lb below that last winning mark and has gone well from fresh before. Richard Fahey usually has his share of winners over the two days – with 19 declared over the weekend!

We’re not dipping into C5 so early with Fahey’s charge with just 8’s on offer……something like Roger Fell’s Miss Ranger could well prove big priced long shot, looking well handicapped under Ben Sanderson. That one missed a season and has come in from Brian Ellison’s yard so any market moves should be noted?

We’re making two small stakes plays with more there’s a hint of déjà vu about our small stakes Spring Mile & Lincoln selections in the members area below!

 

BOL with your bets today.

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge…..our opening bank is now £1000.00 and stakes are now £12.50 EW unless otherwise stated

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Donny card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.50 Unibet Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed) (1) 6f2y

Timeform Top Rated 
123 3. INVINCIBLE ARMY James Tate P. J. McDonald
120 9. EIRENE Dean Ivory Robert Winston
119 4. MAJOR JUMBO Kevin Ryan Kevin Stott

Analyst’s Verdict:
Invincible Army was some way below his best when last seen at Newbury in July, yet James’ Tate’s charge had previously confirmed himself a smart sprinter (dual Group 3 winner) and he is well worth another chance on return. Arbalet’s efforts in defeat last season where commendable and he is feared, whilst the thoroughly likeable Eirene can provide a spot of value of the remainder.

2.25 Unibet Spring Mile Handicap (2) 1m

Timeform Top Rated 
113 8. AL JELLABY Clive Cox Adam Kirby
112 12. CALVADOS SPIRIT Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan
112 4. GULF OF POETS Michael Easterby Nathan Evans

Analyst’s Verdict:
Calvados Spirit is worth forgiving his reappearance run in Ireland last weekend (poorly drawn) and remains the sort who could come good soon for Richard Fahey. Al Jellaby has been unable to justify favouritism on both starts this year but connections’ evidently think he’s well treated and the return to turf could help. Petrus, Exec Chef and Sod’s Law also make the shortlist.

3.00 Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed) (1) 1m

Timeform Top Rated 
134 6. SHARJA BRIDGE Roger Varian Andrea Atzeni
132? 5. REMARKABLE David O’Meara Shane Gray
128 2. CIRCUS COUTURE Jane Chapple-Hyam James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
Sharja Bridge produced a Group-level performance when signing off 2018 with a big-field handicap success at Ascot and this is a good starting point this term before his sights are raised. It will be interesting to see what David O’Meara can do with Remarkable, but Red Starlight appeals as the safe forecast option.

3.35 Unibet Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) (2) 1m

Timeform Top Rated 
124 15. KYNREN David Barron Robert Winston
122p 6. AUXERRE Charlie Appleby James Doyle
120 22. BERINGER Alan King Andrea Atzeni

Saltonstall proved that he goes well fresh and can handle the rigours of a big-field handicap scenario when runner-up in the Irish equivalent of this last spring. He is an appealing alternative to ante-post favourite Auxerre, who looked promising last year but is a short price for one lacking experience in a race of this type. Kynren is a must for the shortlist, along with Beringer and Humbert.

4.10 Unibet Brocklesby Conditions Stakes (3) 5f3y

Timeform Top Rated 
No ratings available for this race

Analyst’s Verdict:
Richard Fahey has won this event 3 times and looks to hold a strong hand again with Show Me Show Me and Bendy Spirit, the former preferred with Hanagan on board. Bill Turner has won this 6 times so Hell of A Joker has to be on the shortlist, while Strong Power was the most expensive of these at the sales. No ratings for this race

4.45 32Red Casino Maiden Stakes (5) 1¼m43y

Timeform Top Rated 
100p 3. BANGKOK Andrew Balding Silvestre De Sousa
91p 1. ALLOCATOR Richard Hannon Tom Marquand
81p 8. IRONCLAD Hugo Palmer Adam Kirby

Analyst’s Verdict:
The form of Bangkok’s first and third runs are incredibly strong and this expensive son of Australia is very much the type to make a better 3-y-o, so there’s every chance he can complete a winning return acknowledging there’s a couple of interesting sons of Dubawi in opposition, Just You Wait a fascinating newcomer, while Ironclad is sure to build on his promising debut.

5.20 32Red.com Apprentice Handicap (Round 1) (5) 1¼m43y

Timeform Top Rated 
93 9. KANNAPOLIS Michael Easterby Josh Quinn (3)
92 4. MUSIC SEEKER Declan Carroll C. J. MacRedmond (5)
91+ 5. COSMIC LANDSCAPE William Jarvis Cieren Fallon (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
A big field and highly competitive. Consultant is one of the least exposed in the line-up and gets the vote on his return with his yard in flying form. Kannapolis and Cosmic Landscape are just a couple of the likely dangers.

 

p commonly referred to as a small ‘p’; and the the horse is likely to improve
P commonly referred to as a large ‘P’; and the horse is capable of much better
+ the horse is possibly better than rated
? the rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence
§ the squiggle’ indicates the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)
§§ the ‘double squiggle’ the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating
x a poor jumper