Saturday Newsletter – 9th March 2019

Saturday Newsletter – 9th March 2019

 

Sandown’s Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle is their feature on Saturday – however, the only c3 race on the cards is the (15.35) and we’d have to share the speedmeisters analyst’s view below that Commodore looked very good on return from that wind op. Nonetheless, he doesn’t feature in their ratings and there is another claimer up top, for which we have drew some recent criticism and the 9/2 is only just wipes yer face value.

At Ayr (15.20) we backed Tresnish for a nice winner on penultimate run however disappointed  LTO and is not ruled out but again only on around 6’s in a 2 paying slot race. Sandy Thompson’s Saint Leo heads the market following an encouraging 4th LTO. That one was held up for the most part of that race on ground that was likely to have been too fast for him. Today’s softer surface should see him to good effect and another on at a wipes yer face price for Henry Brooke.

We have a couple for members below together with that Sandown Timeform………we’ll be back on Monday with a heads up about Cheltenham – we normally put aside a separate pot outside of the regular flexed bank and back a couple per day plus one in the opener where there is always the ‘Skybet money back if a loser’ for a ‘freebie’ selection.

 

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge it’s currently a 32% win/place strike rate…..our bank is now £584.33 and stakes are now £7.30 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Sandown card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.20 Get Switched On With Matchbook Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (3) 1m7f216y

Timeform Top Rated
128 3. THE KNOT IS TIED Neil King Bryony Frost
127 4. TWENTY TWENTY Gary Moore Joshua Moore
126p 6. GLENPARK Lucinda Russell Tom Scudamore

Analyst’s Verdict:
The Knot Is Tied took another step forward when runner-up on handicap debut at Huntingdon last month, and given the narrow winner that day has gone in again since, he must hold sound claims from 2 lb higher. Katpoli may resume his progress back in a handicap and is feared most, though Glenpark is a potential improver.

1.50 European Breeders’ Fund Matchbook VIP ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) (1) 2m3f173y

Timeform Top Rated
149 11. TRIXSTER Tim Vaughan Charlie Price (7)
148 4. MILL GREEN Nicky Henderson Ned Curtis (3)
147 17. SOUTHERN SAM Oliver Sherwood Leighton Aspell

Analyst’s Verdict:
Third Wind has impressed in novice/maiden hurdles this winter and it’s likely his best is still to come now venturing into handicaps, a strongtraveller who will be suited by this sort of scenario. One For Rosie, Rusian Hawk and Before Mindnight complete the shortlist in an intriguing race.

2.25 Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (1) 1m7f216y

Timeform Top Rated
170 13. EXTRA MAG David Pipe Tom Scudamore
169 2. SPEREDEK Nigel Hawke Tom Buckley (10)
168 5. CHTI BALKO Donald McCain William Kennedy

Analyst’s Verdict:
Monsieur Lecoq took his form up another notch when forging clear over C&D in January and has presumably been saved for this since. He’s faced with similar ground conditions again and is narrowly preferred to another unexposed sort in Extra Mag, who represents a yard with a good record in this race. Chti Balko revels in the mud and is an each-way player at bigger odds.

3.00 EBF Stallions/TBA Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat (Series Final) (Listed) (1) 1m7f216y

Whitehotchillifili might just have bumped into a smart one in Yeavering Belle at Warwick last time, the pair 7 lengths clear of the others, so she’s taken to get back to winning ways with the extra emphasis on stamina sure to benefit her. Silver Forever and Mystic Dreamer, who weren’t split by much last time, rank as the main threats.

3.35 Matchbook ‘Best Value Exchange’ Handicap Chase (3) 3m37y

Timeform Top Rated
148 1. AMI DESBOIS Graeme McPherson Kielan Woods
146p 9. POTTERS APPROACH Dan Skelton Harry Skelton
145 4. FAVORITO BUCK’S Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden

Analyst’s Verdict:
Commodore jumped superbly when winning with plenty in hand on his return to fences at Warwick on his comeback (first start since wind operation) on New Year’s Eve and can defy a hefty rise. Ami Desbois went close over this C&D 5 weeks ago and looks the main threat, while Kansas City Chief makes each-way appeal at bigger odds.

4.10 Matchbook Betting Podcast Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (3) 2½m10y

Timeform Top Rated
148 2. RISK AND ROLL Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
147 1. DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL Ben Pauling Daryl Jacob
147 5. ENOLA GAY Venetia Williams Gavin Sheehan

Analyst’s Verdict:
Form figures of PF from 2 runs over fences aren’t too appealing where Mr McGo is concerned, but he’s undoubtedly capable of better in this sphere as he brushes up his jumping and looks on a good mark for his handicap debut here. He’s chanced ahead of Risk And Roll in a trappy contest.

4.45 Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (3) 2½m10y

Timeform Top Rated
144 2. THE KINGS WRIT Kayley Woollacott Harry Cobden
143 1. DUKE DES CHAMPS Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson
142? 3. PRESSURIZE Venetia Williams Hugh Nugent (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
A winner at Exeter in December, The Kings Writ acquitted himself with credit when fourth in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham late in January and he is fancied to make a bold bid with his sights lowered once more. The drop in trip should help Duke Des Champs and he is feared, along with veteran Pressurize.

 

Key  Top Rated: Indicates the highest rated runners in the race adjusted for the weight carried

p commonly referred to as a small ‘p’; and the the horse is likely to improve
P commonly referred to as a large ‘P’; and the horse is capable of much better
+ the horse is possibly better than rated
? the rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence
§ the squiggle’ indicates the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)
§§ the ‘double squiggle’ the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating
x a poor jumper