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Thursday Newsletter – 11th October 2018

Thursday – 11th October 2018

 

Another day with a single turf meeting at Ayr….the going has hone soft to heavy and a bit more rain forecast. There’s some real big field ‘stick the pin in’ handicaps….14.35 Michael Dods Hot Hannah has impressed on last two runs and with Paula Muir getting 5lb off must be a strong shout for this one, though at under a wipes yer face price. We backed Benjamin Thomas earlier in the campaign and he’s back out again under Jason Hart in the 16.10 but again offering us little EW value. The elusive Kupa River goes in the 16.45 and will probably throw one in when we have lost faith with him after several disappointing runs when the chips have been down.

Just a point of IT housekeeping – bear with us whilst we get used to the new newsletter plugin….think today has been sent with a header message ‘Wednesday Notes’….we’ll get there in the end, everything we do is to ultimately try and improve the service 🙂  also we look to have resurrected the feedback@always-winners.com email address and despite saying we had no access to the selections@always-back-winners.com email address you should also be able to reply to us at that one.

There’s a sole selection for members below with Timeform for the same meet……..we’ll be back tomorrow with HQ and York.

 

Check this out for FREE!!!!!

Cleeve Racing’s Jumps season ‘Ten to Follow‘ is out now, always eagerly awaited… it’s available FREE!!!!……..you can download your copy here….Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow FREE guide 2018

It’s a quality publication that contains 10 horses that can pay their way over the coming Jumps season. As always it tries to avoid the ‘Usual Suspects’ to pinpoint horses that are flying slightly under the radar that should provide us with much better value. It’s 15 pages of top-class analysis, including optimum trip and going conditions for every horse… and season targets where already indicated by connections. Don’t miss out as copies are strictly limited……….it’s a decent read and you can add them to your trackers to see how the 10 selections perform over the season.

 

CLICK Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow guide 2018 >>> for your FREE copy

 

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge….our bank has NOW grown by over 230% with an ROI of over 25%….current stakes are now £41.74 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Today’s Selections

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Betfair tap tap boom

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Ayr card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.35 Book Christmas Parties At Ayr Racecourse Novice Stakes (5) 6f

Timeform Top Rated
89 7. EPONA Keith Dalgleish Rowan Scott (3)
83p 11. WARNING FIRE Mark Johnston Joe Fanning
63 1. BOBS AUTHORITY L. Smyth Tony Hamilton

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Epona upped her game under a positive ride over C&D last month and is fancied get off the mark this time. Warning Fire is feared most after her encouraging debut, whilst Pendleton looks the pick of the newcomers.

2.05 Weddings At Western House Hotel Handicap (5) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated
94+ 2. COUNTY FAIR Jim Goldie Phil Dennis (3)
93 9. CHINESE SPIRIT R. Mike Smith Paddy Mathers
90 12. SCEALAI AONAIR Gordon Elliott Andrew Breslin (5)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
County Fair was only having his third start for Jim Goldie when runner-up in a C&D handicap last week and makes plenty of appeal off the same mark here. Recent-winners Sarvi and Alabanza rate the principal dangers.

2.35 Winter Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap (6) 5f

Timeform Top Rated
78§ 2. HOT HANNAH Michael Dods Paula Muir (5)
77 5. TONI’S A STAR Tony Carroll Ben Curtis
77 8. ROCKLEY POINT Katie Scott Phil Dennis (3)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Hot Hannah has bounced back to form of late and pulled clear of the remainder when second to an improver at Hamilton last time. She can return to winning ways. Rockley Point and Star Cracker head the list of dangers.

3.10 Western House Hotel Handicap (4) 6f

Timeform Top Rated
100 3. FALMOUTH LIGHT Iain Jardine Callum Rodriguez
99 11. T FOR TANGO Richard John O’Brien Tony Hamilton
96 9. FEEBS Michael Easterby Nathan Evans

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Falmouth Light has caught the eye in recent starts at this course and looks well worth another crack at this shorter trip (travelled powerfully last time). He can land the spoils. Inexes and Van Gerwen are others to consider.

3.40 Christmas Day At Western House Hotel Handicap (6) (D.I) 7f50y

Timeform Top Rated 
81p 8. LONG WOOD J. J. Feane Ray Dawson (5)
80 11. ORIENTELLE Richard Whitaker Cam Hardie
78§ 6. MAJDOOL Noel Wilson Phil Dennis (3)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Irish-raider Long Wood failed to stay 9.5f on her latest start at Gowran, but is interesting now partnered by a good-value claimer switched to a handicap back down in trip. She receives the vote, with in-form pair Redarna and Tadaany heading up the opposition.

4.10 Good Luck Stephen From Ayr Racecourse Handicap (6) (D.II) 7f50y

Timeform Top Rated
79 3. BENJAMIN THOMAS John Quinn Jason Hart
77 7. LADY SONIA A. Slattery Tony Hamilton
76 5. ROSEMAY R. Mike Smith Ben Robinson (3)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Benjamin Thomas returned to form after 6 weeks off when runner-up at Hamilton last month and is well treated if able to build on that. Dawn Breaking isn’t one to forgot about from his current mark judged on his 2-y-o form. Roaring Forties hinted at a revival last time and is another to consider dropped in class.

4.45 Racegoers Club 50th Anniversary Handicap (5) 7f50y

Timeform Top Rated
95+ 10. HAVANA GO Keith Dalgleish Graham Lee
94 11. MISCHIEF MANAGED Tim Easterby Duran Fentiman
92 13. INGLORIOUS Keith Dalgleish Jason Hart

Analyst’s Verdict:
The lightly-raced Havana Go caught the eye on debut for this yard here 9 days ago after 5 months off and is of interest here, especially back at 7f. Mischief Managed and Reinforced are others to consider.

5.15 Racecourse Christmas Tribute Nights Handicap (6) 1m5f26y

Timeform Top Rated
85+ 10. CUBOMANIA Gordon Elliott Joe Fanning
79 2. ZEALOUS Alistair Whillans Dougie Costello
78 12. GET OUT OF JAIL John McConnell Ray Dawson (5)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Cubomania has made excellent strides forward over hurdles/ fences upon joining Gordon Elliott and he looks worth siding with to confirm his much-improved form back on the level from his lowly mark. Pammi is proving most consistent and is feared, along with Motahassen.

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