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Tuesday Newsletter – 12th March 2019

Tuesday Newsletter – 12th March 2019

 

Day 1 at Cheltenham and a meet of some of the most top class and highly competitive racing in the world. There’s always some value to be had and plenty of bookie offers but it’s best to not get too carried away as perhaps there needs to be more luck than judgement with so many prepared for this spectacular.

We’re approaching it with a separate mini-bank to the regular member betting……..some of you may take the view of just a watching brief  with a nice fireside scotch, but we’re going to set a separate budget of around 25 to 30 pts.

That’s going to be around 6 pts a day targeting a couple of the big daily handicap’s plus a freebie in the opener where there’s always the SkyBet money back offer. Don’t forget, it’s just a one week festival and we’re here virtually 52 weeks a year, plus there’s also some decent opportunities elsewhere this week.

We’re separating our Cheltenham bets on a separate page daily where you will be able to find via a posted link on this what will be our regular daily post…..just hit the highlighted Cheltenham Day 1 link below get to today’s thoughts stats and selections.

Cheltenham Day 1

Our regular daily selections outside of Cheltenham will be lower down this page 🙂

We have one outside of Cheltenham for members on what promises to be a wild, wet & windy day around the country – hope the Irish horses have taken their seas sickness tablets 🙂

Members notes are below……

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge it’s currently a 32% win/place strike rate…..our bank is now £555.98 and stakes are now £6.94 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Today’s Selections

This content in this area is for members only. If you’d like to check out this content, please purchase a Membership Subscription. Or if you are a member you can Login Here

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Betfair tap tap boom

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Cheltenham card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (1) 2m87y

Timeform Top Rated:
163p 1. AL DANCER Nigel Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies
161p 18. FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES Joseph Patrick O’Brien J. J. Slevin
160 10. KLASSICAL DREAM W. P. Mullins R. Walsh

Analyst’s Verdict:
Al Dancer was most impressive when taking apart a good field at Ascot and can retain his unbeaten record over hurdles with another big win, the prospect of a well-run race sure to see him in the best light. Juvenile Fakir d’Oudairies looks a key player, as does the exciting, well-backed Angels Breath, the choice of Nico de Boinville over stablemate Mister Fisher.

2.10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (1) 1m7f199y

Timeform Top Rated:
172p 3. DUC DES GENIEVRES W. P. Mullins P. Townend
170p 4. GLEN FORSA Mick Channon Jonathan Burke
169p 8. LALOR Kayley Woollacott Richard Johnson

Analyst’s Verdict:
No novice chaser this season has looked more assured than Glen Forsa in the jumping department. Indeed, he produced a power-packed display when making Kalashnikov look decidedly ordinary at Sandown and will take plenty of stopping here. Duc des Genievres is next on the list ahead of fellow Irish-raider Hardline.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (1) 3m1f

Timeform Top Rated:
169x 4. MINELLA ROCCO Jonjo O’Neill Richie McLernon
168+ 14. UP FOR REVIEW W. P. Mullins P. Townend
167+ 16. COO STAR SIVOLA Nick Williams Lizzie Kelly (3)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Jonjo O’Neill has a good record in this race and it’s perhaps worth chancing Minella Rocco, who could well have needed both outings this season. Still only a 9-y-o he’s very well treated on his Gold Cup second in 2017 and, interestingly, he now has cheekpieces and a tongue tie combined for the first time since then. Up For Review, Mister Whitaker and Vintage Clouds head the many dangers.

3.30 Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (1) 2m87y

Timeform Top Rated:
185 8. APPLE’S JADE Gordon Elliott J. W. Kennedy
178 2. BUVEUR D’AIR Nicky Henderson Barry Geraghty
177 5. MELON W. P. Mullins P. Townend

Analyst’s Verdict:
After easy wins on all 4 outings this term, including most impressively back at 2m in the Irish Champion latest, Apple’s Jade is taken to thwart Buveur d’Air as that one bids to become the first since Istabraq to complete a hat-trick in the race. Laurina, who burst on to the scene with her Dawn Run success last year, has yet to taste defeat for Willie Mullins and is another fascinating contender.

4.10 OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (David Nicholson) (Grade 1) (1) 2m3f200y

Timeform Top Rated:

167p 2. BENIE DES DIEUX W. P. Mullins R. Walsh
158+ 10. LIMINI W. P. Mullins D. J. Mullins
157 13. ROKSANA Dan Skelton Harry Skelton

Analyst’s Verdict:
Benie des Dieux took advantage of a below-par Apple’s Jade twice last spring (formerly in this race) and that form is well in advance of the opposition here. Her subsequent absence is no concern given the yard she represents and she can provide Willie Mullins with his tenth win in the race. Roksana shaped well on last month’s reappearance and is second choice in favour of Limini.

4.50 Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed) (1) 2½m44y

Timeform Top Rated:
163p 14. RIDERS ONTHE STORM Tom J. Taaffe Brian Hughes
162 13. MOVEWITHTHETIMES Paul Nicholls Barry Geraghty
161 11. SPRINGTOWN LAKE Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson

Analyst’s Verdict:
Tower Bridge ran a cracker in last year’s Albert Bartlett and posted much his best effort in this discipline when second to Duc des Genievres at Gowran last time. He gets the vote in a typically-open renewal of this contest. Fellow Irish raiders A Plus Tard and Riders Onthe Storm are feared most, whilst Springtown Lake may be best of the home contingent.

5.30 National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (1) 3m7f147y

Timeform Top Rated:
168p 1. BALLYWARD W. P. Mullins Mr P. W. Mullins
166 5. DISCORAMA Paul Nolan Mr Barry O’Neill
165p 13. OK CORRAL Nicky Henderson Mr Derek O’Connor

Analyst’s Verdict:
It looks significant that Ballyward is the sole Willie Mullins runner given the fine record of son Patrick and the yard in the race. He probably would have won at Naas even without Discorama’s fall and he should relish this test. OK Corral jumped like a seasoned pro when winning on just his second start over fences at Warwick and is a big player. Whisperinthebreeze completes the shortlist.

Key  Top Rated: Indicates the highest rated runners in the race adjusted for the weight carried

p commonly referred to as a small ‘p’; and the the horse is likely to improve
P commonly referred to as a large ‘P’; and the horse is capable of much better
+ the horse is possibly better than rated
? the rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence
§ the squiggle’ indicates the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)
§§ the ‘double squiggle’ the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating
x a poor jumper

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