Tuesday Newsletter – 30th October 2018

Tuesday – 30th October 2018

 

Richard Fahey’s Third Time Lucky ran into a half decent 3yo yesterday though there was a bit of place money for the pot with the 10’s we manged to get. Anyone betting extras from the intro notes, Jason Hart took got the maiden, Make Me in the winners enclosure in what looked a very simple win at 7/2 and Tim Easterby’s charge is one to note for next term.

Just Catterick today with supporting views from the speedmeisters below….another 3yo maiden we do have half an eye on is Bonanza Bowls going in the (12.55) C6. He ran well here two races back when not ideally drawn and followed that up with a 3rd of 6 under a 10lb claiming apprentice. Bryan Smart’s charge has Graham Lee up top and we’ll watch that one today.

 

The bank is now just over £3900 for those on the £1k to £10k challenge….and grown to nearly 300% with an ROI of over 26%….current stakes at 1.25% are now £49.46 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com ……..any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Catterick card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

12.25 EBF Novice Stakes (5) 5f

Timeform Top Rated 
100 11. ORANGE BLOSSOM James Given Paul Hanagan
98 1. WEDDING DATE Richard Hannon Clifford Lee (3)
95 9. JUST BE FRIENDLY Michael Bell Hayley Turner

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Just Be Friendly hasn’t achieved quite as much as Orange Blossom or Wedding Date, but she’s expected to relish the drop to 5f and, crucially, is well drawn to attack, which is a big plus at this track. A bigger threat may emerge in the shape of Leodis Dream, who was clear of the rest when finding only one too good on debut.

12.55 Racing UK Profits Returned To Racing Handicap (6) 5f

Timeform Top Rated 
78 7. ROCKLEY POINT Katie Scott Phil Dennis (3)
76 11. ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR Ruth Carr James Sullivan
76 2. PEARL NOIR Scott Dixon Theodore Ladd (5)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Rockley Point continues in good form and seems sure to go well. Fellow front-runner Pearl Noir is likely to be bang there again after his victory here 3 weeks ago. Carlovian hasn’t run many bad races this year and is also respected.

1.25 Millbry Hill Handicap (4) 1½m13y

Timeform Top Rated 
96 2. DANCE KING Tim Easterby Cam Hardie
96 4. DOCTOR CROSS Richard Fahey David Nolan
95 1. MIXBOY Keith Dalgleish Joe Fanning

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Doctor Cross should be spot on after his return to action at Nottingham earlier this month and will appreciate the return to this longer trip. He can land the spoils. Recent C&D winner Illustrissime is the obvious danger.

2.00 Watch More With Racing UK Extra Handicap (4) 7f6y

Timeform Top Rated 
105 12. INVIOLABLE SPIRIT Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan
103 8. OUR CHARLIE BROWN Tim Easterby James Sullivan
102 1. ROUSAYAN David O’Meara C. J. McGovern (3)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Inviolable Spirit is just 1 lb above his last successful mark and has a better draw to work with than at Musselburgh last time, so he could be the way to go in an open race. Parys Mountain is a definite threat if repeating his thirdplace finish over C&D 10 days ago, while Rousayan is also considered down in class.

2.30 Book Now For New Year’s Day Handicap (5) 1m7f189y

Timeform Top Rated 
80 4. DONNACHIES GIRL Alistair Whillans Rowan Scott (3)
79 14. DAS KAPITAL John Berry John Egan
79 2. HELIOBLU BARELIERE Ivan Furtado Gabriele Malune (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
The lightly-raced Alexis Carrington makes more appeal than most after her fine second upped to 2m at Chelmsford last time. That was only her fifth start and she’s clearly up to winning a staying handicap like this. Flower Power did well to win from behind here 3 weeks ago and is respected in her hat-trick bid. Helioblu Bareliere is also considered.

3.05 Racing UK Extra On racinguk.com Handicap (4) 5f212y

Timeform Top Rated 
102 6. REQUINTO DAWN Richard Fahey Paul Hanagan
101 5. RUSSIAN REALM Paul Midgley Graham Lee
101 9. VAN GERWEN Les Eyre P. J. McDonald

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Backing Requinto Dawn requires a leap of faith given he’s been out of sorts for a while, but this represents a drop in class and he’s landed stall 1, so if he’s going to revive this term, it will surely be in this contest. Russian Realm and Van Gerwen are fairly solid alternatives.

3.35 Jump Season Starts 23rd November Handicap (6) (D.I) 5f212y

Timeform Top Rated 
73 7. COMPTON RIVER Bryan Smart Harry Russell (7)
72 11. CUPID’S ARROW Ruth Carr James Sullivan
71§ 1. TELLOVOI Richard Guest P. J. McDonald

Analyst’s Verdict:
It’s A Wish was only having her second start for Mick Channon when runner-up at Redcar last time and is less exposed than most of her rivals here. She can open her account. Compton River and Coiste Bodhar are others to consider.

4.10 Jump Season Starts 23rd November Handicap (6) (D.II) 5f212y

Timeform Top Rated
75 9. BEE MACHINE Declan Carroll Paddy Mathers
72 4. IMPERIAL LEGEND Alan Brown David Nolan
71 5. INGLEBY MOLLY David O’Meara C. J. McGovern (3)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Bee Machine scored on similar ground here in the spring and has been given a chance by the handicapper. He gets the vote in a tricky-looking finale. Imperial Legend and Ingleby Molly rate the principal dangers.

 

On a separate note – we often get asked about our affiliation with the book Always Back Winners by Stewart Simpson – just to clear things up…..we have no association with him, but found it a cracking read in the late 70’s that inspired the introduction to the sport and hence the site name. His exploits were conducted with paddock inspections whilst present at the meeting he was backing in, with no such access to on-line accounts in those days. Much of the rationale concerning ‘top weights on turning tracks’ can still be applied today with supporting information ready to hand from the likes of geegeez, ATR etc which, in theory, makes it whole lot ‘easier’ for the regular punter.

Anyone looking for a winter read during close season whilst we take on the NH…….for which he had no love at all 🙂 ….you can try and grab a copy from the likes of Amazon below….