Wednesday Newsletter – 27th March 2019

Wednesday Newsletter – 27th March 2019

 

Just racing from Market Rasen today and the first race on the card offering 3 paying slots is the (15.15) MansionBet Handicap Chase.

Evan Williams’ seven-year-old DARK INVADER looks the one offering EW value, who was 3rd LTO at Ludlow to the re-opposing Quantum Of Solace, on 9lb better terms. He also gave Nikki Steel a good beating at Ffos Las last term and still weighted to confirm that with around a best 7’s on offer.

Outside of that there’s a 13 runner C4 hurdle (16.50) for those looking at a bigger price? It looks a real ‘pin the tail jobbie’ with lots of these having a chance and not a whole load of form. Sigurd & Very Extravagant hold what form there is and not surprisingly are at the front the market. Philip Kirby’s NEMEAN LION has been since off since a poor run on New Years Day – however if repeating previous form, looks the EW punt…..Thomas Dowson could well make all on the 15/2 shot?

Yesterday, Maurice Barnes trained Apache Pilot landed a distant 3rd…..but in the paying slots at least, for some returns for those taking the early 16’s.

Timeform is for the Market Rasen meeting.

BOL with any of your bets today.

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge it’s currently a 32% win/place strike rate…..our bank is now £495.71 and stakes are now £6.20 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Market Rasen card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

2.10 Mansionbet Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier) (4) 2m148y

Timeform Top Rated:
139 1. BENNY’S BRIDGE Fergal O’Brien Paddy Brennan
138p 5. YAA SALAAM David Pipe Tom Scudamore
110 3. WELLAND Pam Sly Kielan Woods

Analyst’s Verdict:
Useful Flat recruit Yaa Salaam came clear with 2 previous winners on his hurdle debut at Ffos Las last month and he’s narrowly preferred to Benny’s Bridge, with this type of scenario perhaps likely to suit him better.

2.40 Mansionbet Maiden Hurdle (4) 2½m139y

Timeform Top Rated:
131 4. LADY CAMELOT Philip Kirby Sean Quinlan
130p 2. BUBBLES OF GOLD Olly Murphy Richard Johnson
117 3. IMPERIAL ELIXIR Fergal O’Brien Paddy Brennan

Analyst’s Verdict:
This shorter trip isn’t sure to suit Bubbles of Gold, but his form reads well and a positive ride should see him open his account under Rules. Lady Camelot is the obvious threat in receipt of plenty of weight.

3.15 Mansionbet Handicap Chase (4) 2m1f43y

Timeform Top Rated:
122 7. TORRENT DES MOTTES John Cornwall Patrick Cowley (5)
117 3. QUANTUM OF SOLACE Fergal O’Brien Paddy Brennan
116 5. ROYAL ACT Sarah-Jayne Davies Jason Dixon (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Torrent des Mottes is bred to make a chaser and duly produced a much-improved performance when winning on his second start in this sphere at Huntingdon last week. A penalty shouldn’t be enough to prevent a follow up if in similar form. Quantum of Solace should run well again and is next best ahead of Royal Act.

3.45 Download The Mansionbet App Handicap Chase (4) 2m5f89y

Timeform Top Rated:
133 2. EARLSHILL Stuart Edmunds Tom O’Brien
132x 7. FOLLOW THE SWALLOW Graeme McPherson Miss Lilly Pinchin (7)
131 4. STAR FOOT Jo Davis Page Fuller (3)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Second Time Around is every inch a chaser on looks/pedigree and showed improved form when runner-up on chase debut at Huntingdon on Boxing Day, a mistake 2 out proving his undoing. His latest non-completion is best forgiven and he is fancied to go well with potential for better still in this sphere. Earlshill is interesting returned to chasing, as is last week’s course scorer Star Foot.

4.20 Mansionbet Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) (3) 2m7f16y

138p 4. BACK ON THE LASH Martin Keighley Richard Johnson
137 6. MARKOV Ben Pauling Daryl Jacob
136 5. BALLYHOME Fergal O’Brien Connor Brace (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
The way Back On The Lash rattled home to get off the mark over hurdles at Ludlow a couple of months ago suggests there’s a fair bit more improvement in him now stepping up in trip, so he gets the vote ahead of Ballyhome and Faithful Mount who both arrive on the back of creditable efforts in second.

4.50 Download The Mansionbet App Handicap Hurdle (4) 2m7f16y

Timeform Top Rated:
121 12. SIGURD Joanne Foster Brian Hughes
120 2. QUERRY HORSE Oliver Sherwood Jack Sherwood (3)
119 13. SCHAP Caroline Fryer Fergus Gregory (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
The Sedgefield race won by Very Extravagant 3 weeks ago was weak, but he did it without too much difficulty and he retains handicap scope on old form, so he looks the way to go. Querry Horse and Sigurd head the opposition.

5.20 Mansionbet Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (4) 2¼m140y

Timeform Top Rated:
119 4. NIGH OR NEVER Ian Williams Edward Austin (6)
118+ 7. ICE GALLEY Philip Kirby Thomas Dowson (3)
117 1. SIANNES STAR Brian Ellison Jonjo O’Neill Jr

Analyst’s Verdict:
Nigh Or Never is the type his new stable does well with so, following a couple of low-key efforts, it would be no surprise were he to take a leap forward on the back of a break and, in all likelihood, this won’t take much winning. The Very Thing and Working Class are the main threats, though both have a bit to prove.

p commonly referred to as a small ‘p’; and the the horse is likely to improve
P commonly referred to as a large ‘P’; and the horse is capable of much better
+ the horse is possibly better than rated
? the rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence
§ the squiggle’ indicates the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)
§§ the ‘double squiggle’ the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating
x a poor jumper