Wednesday Newsletter – 6th March 2019

Wednesday Newsletter – 6th March 2019

 

There’s a ‘prize money’ boycott at Lingfield races today forcing a card totalling just 15 runners – heck, Fontwell is not a whole lot better with 27!

Catterick is our choice today and possibly one to nibble at a price in the (14.20).There seemed a bit of skulduggery in place when we were due to back AZA RUN on what was a 25/1 into 7’s before being withdrawn at Leicester in early December. Trainer Shaun Harris has had a decent couple of weeks and the charge has dropped a reasonable looking mark of 81 since young Aiden Blakemore won on him rated at 90 back in Feb 2017. There’s not a whole load of form in the field and dropping to a seller for the first time may threaten the slots at double digit price.

Later on there, Don McCain’s Same Circus goes in the (16.20) – he has been chasing this season with a couple of wins to date. To be honest he has the appearance of more of a hurdler than a chaser and reverting back to the short stuff off a reduced mark of 122 has appeal in this at wipes yer face odds – albeit is just two paying places.

Timeform is for the AW early evening Kempton meeting and members notes are below

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge it’s currently a 32% win/place strike rate…..our bank is now £611.82 and stakes are now £7.65 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Kempton card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

 

4.55 Move Over To Matchbook Handicap (2) 1m1f219y

Analyst’s Verdict:
Matterhorn is in sensational form, having won five of his last six races. He’s never looked in any trouble in any of them and he should be up to defying a lofty mark of 107 here. Dark Red relishes this surface and hasn’t disgraced himself in competitive races in Dubai. Executive Force is thriving and should be involved in the finish, also.

Timeform Top Rated:
122p 1. MATTERHORN Mark Johnston Joe Fanning
121 4. NONIOS David Simcock Jamie Spencer
120 3. KYLLACHY GALA Warren Greatrex Oisin Murphy

5.30 Matchbook Time To Move Over Handicap (7) 1m

Analyst’s Verdict:
Purple Paddy won comprehensively over C&D last week and should go close again under a penalty. His wide draw is a slight concern but he’s likely to be ridden with restraint as per last week. Jai Hanuman also runs under a penalty for a wide margin success and he is a significant danger. Runaiocht would be of interest if the market speaks in his favour.

Timeform Top Rated:
69+ 2. PURPLE PADDY Jimmy Fox John Fahy
68 1. JAI HANUMAN Michael Wigham Franny Norton
67 4. SHYARCH Christine Dunnett Kevin Lundie (5)

6.00 Matchbook Casino Novice Stakes (5) (D.I) 1m

Analyst’s Verdict:
Lumination is related to several multiple winners, including one that won on debut. His yard has clearly taken its time with him and he may be up to starting his career in style. Roma Bangkok sets the standard of the horses than have run but has an absence to overcome. Ironclad is another debutant of interest.

Timeform Top Rated:
98p 1. ROMA BANGKOK Marco Botti Andrea Atzeni
95p 11. I’M AVAILABLE Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy
83 4. ARDIMENTO Rod Millman Alistair Rawlinson

6.30 Matchbook Casino Novice Stakes (5) (D.II) 1m

Analyst’s Verdict:
Liliofthelamplight represents a top yard that does well with these sort of types and she may be up to making a winning debut. Majestic Dawn and Don Jupp bring solid form to the table and they will be the biggest dangers.

Timeform Top Rated:
90p 5. MAJESTIC DAWN Paul Cole Raul Da Silva
83p 1. DON JUPP Marco Botti Daniel Muscutt
78 4. HTILOMINLO Sylvester Kirk Oisin Murphy

7.00 ‘Road To The Kentucky Derby’ Conditions Stakes (2) 1m

Analyst’s Verdict:
Jahbath only won an uncompetitive heat at Southwell last time but couldn’t have been more impressive and he should have too much in hand of his rivals. Target Zone looks like he’ll continue to improve with more racing and he is a significant danger. Similar comments apply to Rectory Road.

Timeform Top Rated:
112p 7. JAHBATH William Haggas Jim Crowley
106p 9. SPANISH MISSION David Simcock Jamie Spencer
105p 2. CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD Mick Channon Callum Shepherd

7.30 Matchbook VIP Handicap (4) 7f

Analyst’s Verdict:
Master Diver shaped as though a drop in trip would suit at Newcastle last time, is still relatively lightly raced and is fancied to win a competitivelooking handicap. Blame Culture will be a threat after his win at Wolverhampton. Hammer Gun is a solid each-way alternative.

Timeform Top Rated:
99 2. MASTER DIVER Sir Mark Prescott Bt Luke Morris
98 7. IN THE RED Martin Smith Adam Kirby
98 8. HAMMER GUN Derek Shaw Paddy Mathers

8.00 Matchbook Betting Podcast Handicap (6) (D.I) 6f

Analyst’s Verdict:
Storm Melody is a consistent type who ran another solid race here last week over 7f, and the drop in trip should pose no problems. Kraka is another that is knocking at the door and should be involved in the finish. Beepeecee is best of the rest.

Timeform Top Rated:
85 3. KRAKA Christine Dunnett Kieran O’Neill
83 8. DARK MAGIC Dean Ivory Adam Kirby
82 2. SIR OTTOMAN Ivan Furtado Jason Hart

8.30 Matchbook Betting Podcast Handicap (6) (D.II) 6f

Analyst’s Verdict:
Miracle Garden finds himself in a class 6 for the first time since 2017 and the drop in grade combined with the reapplication of blinkers might just be what he needs to get involved here. Maximum Power is running well and rates as the main threat. Dreamboat Annie may be one for an each-way interest.

Timeform Top Rated:
83 6. MAXIMUM POWER Tim Pinfield Theodore Ladd (5)
82 7. AFRICAN BLESSING John Best Jamie Spencer
81 2. MIRACLE GARDEN Ian Williams Richard Kingscote